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        長江云客戶端

        長江云公眾號

        人民幣入籃SDR懸念今日揭曉 直接利好或有限

        11月30日,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)執行董事會將決定是否將人民幣納入SDR(特別提款權)。目前各方意見普遍認為人民幣入籃SDR概率較高。但分析人士預計,即便人民幣入籃,對人民幣資產的直接拉動作用有限,其價值更多的體現在人民幣國際化的象征意義上。

        據了解,IMF每5年審議一次SDR相關議程,包括選擇入籃貨幣標準、各貨幣權重以及SDR的利率等問題。目前,入籃貨幣標準包括過去5年內貨品及服務出口量最大以及由IMF決定該貨幣是否可被“自由使用”。

        上一次也就是在2010年的審議中,人民幣符合貨物出口要求,但未能滿足“自由使用”條件。在今年的審議中,人民幣依然能夠滿足出口要求,而在“自由使用”條件上,將由IMF執行董事會投票決定。

        一般而言,需要獲得IMF獲得至少70%的投票權通過,而重大事項更要求85%的投票權。從目前IMF各成員國的投票權重來看,美國一家獨大,占17.68%,相當于在重大事項上具有一票否決權。其他擁有較高投票權的國家還有日本、德國、法國、英國及中國,分別擁有6.56%、6.12%、4.51%、4.51%和4%的投票權。目前,IMF成員國中不少已經表態支持人民幣加入SDR。美國財長、英國政府以及IMF總裁拉加德等都發聲表示支持,而最終結果還待今日最終的投票情況。

        或難有資金大量入境

        如果人民幣此次成功加入SDR,市場最為關心的是國際機構可能會增加人民幣貨幣以及人民幣資產配置的需求,尤其是中國國債以及人民幣計價債券會受到歡迎。不過,從效果來看,預計對人民幣資產的拉動還相當有限。

        目前,SDR在國際儲備中占比為2.4%,如果各國央行按照人民幣在SDR籃子中的份額增配人民幣資產,對應的需求只有400多億美元,在全球國際儲備中占比很小。此外,為了給人民幣入籃SDR以緩沖,目前由美元、英鎊、歐元和日元的SDR的構架都會從今年底延遲到2016年9月,這意味著即使納入SDR,對人民幣的直接影響也要在3個季度以后產生。

        中信證券研究員胡玉峰認為,SDR從本質上來說是一種記賬單位,不能直接用于國際貿易支付和結算,也不能兌換成黃金。因此加入SDR后,各國對人民幣的需求增加有限。事實上,在現實操作中,SDR實際發生交易的總量也較低,應用范圍有限,因此加入SDR并不會直接加大國際市場對人民幣的需求。

        胡玉峰指出,決定人民幣資產吸引力的關鍵在于國內的經濟狀況。當前我國基本面并不樂觀,加上美聯儲年內加息預期的影響,人民幣資產吸引力有限,短期內資金流入的動力不大。對比中美兩國國債收益率走勢不難發現,隨著美國經濟復蘇走強,中美兩國國債到期收益率間的利差正呈現出逐步收窄的態勢。在內部經濟增長乏力、外部分流吸引強烈的條件下,預計人民幣加入SDR后不會有資金大量流入國內資本市場。

        興業證券分析師王涵也表示,加入SDR的影響更多的體現在信心層面——有助于提升人民幣資產吸引力,但對于人民幣廣泛使用貢獻或有限。從人民幣國際化角度來看,當前人民幣盡管在貿易結算中占比已經位居全球第三,但和美元、歐元相比仍然較低,而在跨境支付中,還沒有進入前五。因此人民幣國際化仍有較長的路要走,加入SDR只是一個新開始。

        人民幣升貶之爭再起

        自今年8月11日央行主動引導人民幣大幅貶值后,市場對于人民幣貶值預期一度上升,隨后在干預下人民幣貶值幅度得到控制。而以美銀美林為代表的外資行預計人民幣加入SDR后或放開貶值空間。

        美銀美林近日警告稱,中美貨幣政策的“巨大分化”會令人民幣承壓,到明年年底,人民幣兌美元將再貶9%至7.00,貶值壓力將在月底IMF關于人民幣納入SDR的投票過后陡增。

        廣發證券陳果也發表了類似的觀點,他表示,加入SDR可能會改變央行對于人民幣匯率的持續支持態度,人民幣貶值空間有望放開。雖然經歷了一輪貶值,但人民幣在各國貨幣中仍然堅挺,年初至今,只有美元對人民幣升值2.9%。加入SDR后,央行可能會更加關注國內貨幣政策,而放棄對人民幣匯率的支持。而且不排除會采取一次性貶值的方式,防止資本在一段時間持續貶值的壓力中外流。

        不過,興業證券分析師王涵指出,從近期數據來看,在10月非農就業數據大幅超預期后,美聯儲12月加息預期明顯上升,但市場對于人民幣貶值預期反而在10月以后持續回落,意味著市場對于人民幣的擔憂在下降。

        大華銀行分析師全德健也表示,不論是從國內經濟數據、政治穩定性、金融市場發展,還是債務或資本流動動態來看,目前并不存在人民幣大規模貶值或持久貶值的跡象。

        違法和不良信息舉報電話

        鄂公網安備 42010602000216號

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